I've admired Alicia Keys since before I got into the music industry, just everything she represents as a female artist.
Gather experience... Look at what you should not look at. A feeling of anxiety is the sure and certain evidence that you should do this.
Trust your gut instinct over spreadsheets. There are too many variables in the real world that you simply can't put into a spreadsheet. Spreadsheets spit out results from your inexact assumptions and give you a false sense of security. In most cases, your heart and gut are still your best guide.

